Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Financial Sustainability Ratio pada Bank Umum Swast Nasional Non Devisa Periode 1995-2005

STIE Perbanas Surabaya

Abstrak

Penelitian ini betujuan untuk menguji konsistensi model prediksi kinerja keuangan pada Bank Umum Swasta Nasional Non Devisa periode 1995-2005. Variabel-variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah kinerja keuangan Bank Umum Swasta Nasional Non Devisa yang diproksikan melalui Financial Sustainability Ratio (FSR). Sampel yang terpilih dalam penelitian ini dengan metode purposive sampling berjumlah 28 bank umum swasta nasional non devisa yang terdaftar di direktori Bank Indonesia selama tahun 1995-2005. Analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi berganda dengan menggunakan metode stepwise. Pada hasil pengujian konsistensi model prediksi kinerja keuangan pada Bank Umum Swasta Nasional Non Devisa periode 1995-2005 menunjukkan variabel independen terdiri dari rasio-rasio keuangan bank dan sensitifitas bank terhadap variabel makro ekonomi dan terhadap variabel dependen yaitu Financial Sustainability Rasio (FSR) mengalami perubahan struktural di Indonesia pada Bank Umum Swasta Nasional Non Devisa selama periode 1995-2005. Sehingga penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa model prediksi kinerja keuangan pada Bank Umum Swasta Nasional Non Devisa tidak konsisten pada periode 1995-2005.

Kata Kunci : kinerja keuangan, financial sustainability ratio, variable makro ekonomi, variable mikro ekonomi, kinerja keuangan.

Abstract

This study is aimed to test the consistency of time period model, whether the information that previously affects today’s performance can be used to predict the performance in the future, and how the consistency of Indonesia banking financial prediction model formulation equation in order to detect bank condition and performance in the period of pre-economic crisis (1995-1996), during economic crisis (1997-1999) or post-economic crisis (2000-2005) is since bank condition and health is the interest of all relevant parties namely bank owner and manager, customers, Bank Indonesia in its capacity as the supervisor and builder, and the government. The samples are Non Foreign Exchange National Private Banks listed in Indonesian Banking Directory during the period after economic crisis in 1995 – 2005 and Indonesian Financial Economic Statistics Monthly Statement for economic macro indicator. The sampling is performed by means of purposive method (purposive sampling). Dependent Variable in this study is Financial Sustainability Ratio and independent variable in this study is Capital Adequacy Ratio, Non Performing Loan, Return On Assets, Operational Cost Ratio to Operational Income, Loan to Deposit Ratio, Money Supply Sensitivity, General Customer Price Index Sensitivity and SBI Interest Rate Sensitivity. The result of this study shows that model financial sustainability ratio did not have structural stabilization in 1999 – 2005.

Keywords : financial prediction, financial sustainability ratio, macroeconomic variable, financial performance

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